Monday, February 2, 2009

Adam Smith and A Theory of Moral Sentiments

昨天,万分惋惜。因为提前登记了在 LSE 举办的 ‘ 中国发展论坛 ’ 而没能跟 cssa 一起去唐人街一睹温总理的尊荣。不过,昨天的活动还没算白费,至少增进了一些我对国内经济情况的了解。尤其是活动结束后,一位宏观经济研究所的学者在跟我们几个同学私下聊天时说了一句挺有趣的话

‘ 论进步,你得看是拿什么标准。如果以美国式的经济政治自由为标,短期内我们绝对达不到。但何谓标准啊?那个国家强大,有钱,那个国家的模式就是标准。这次的金融危机,让世界对美国的盲目崇拜降低了不少。如果中国强大,有钱了,那中国式的政经模式就是标准。 ’

以本人的浅见,西方资本主义的不完善,主要取决与对亚当斯密《国富论》过于重视而忽视了他本人更为重视的《道德情操论》。后者对人性的诠释及其精辟,对理解这个现代经济学之父的整体思想起着关键型的作用。既然温总理访英,我就来分享分享这本他曾经推荐过的书。

There is a growing consensus of late, that 2009 marks the end of an era, an era characterised by a phenomenal expansion of wild, unfettered global capitalistic bubble the roots of which could be traced all the way back to the Reagan era. At a time when people have once again (the first was great dep) witnessed the imperfection of the free market, it is common to see fingers of blame being pointed at the decentralised organisation of economic activities first advocated by Adam Smith. This is neither surprising nor evitable, for it is mere human nature to look for scapegoats amidst an ego-shattering crisis notwithstanding the possibilities of these poor animals being neither existent nor capable of causing any mischief.

Indeed, much of the world has denounced capitalism (or investment banking in the current contex lol) as a philosophy that promotes the creation of a bunch of greedy, self-interested businessmen who are driven by nothing other than the hedonistic pleasures of life. Before discussing whether this was what Adam Smith really meant, it is illustrating to note that Adam Smith was a moral philosopher before he was an economist. And this father of modern economics would probably jerk out from his grave if his spirits in heaven (or in hell, lol) were to become aware of this inherently flawed post-humous interpretation of his thoughts.

Perphaps to the surprise of those who have only heard of The Wealth of Nations, AS opened A theory of Moral Sentiments with a seemingly contradictory remark:

‘How selfish soever man may be supposed, there are evidently some principles in his nature, which interest him in the fortunes of others, and render their happiness necessary to him , though he derives nothing from it , except the pleasure of seeing it . Of this kind is pity or compassion, the emotion we feel for the misery of others, when we either see it, or are made to conceive it in a very lively manner. That we often derive sorrow from the sorrows of others, is a matter of fact too obvious to require any instances to prove it ; for this sentiment, like all the other original passions of human nature, is by no means confined to the virtuous or the humane, though they perhaps may feel it with the most exquisite sensibility. The greatest ruffian, the most hardened violator of the laws of society, is not altogether without it. ’

He also explored the concept of Sympathy and our propensity to engage in charitable acts:

‘As we have no immediate experience of what other men feel, we can form no idea of the manner in which they are affected, but by conceiving what we ourselves should feel in the like situation. Though our brother is on the rack, as long as we ourselves are at our ease, our senses will never inform us of what he suffers. They never did, and never can, carry us beyond our own person, and it is by the imagination only that we can form any conception of what are his sensations. Neither can that faculty help us to this any other way, than by representing to us what would be our own, if we were in his case. It is the impressions of our own senses only, not those of his, which our imaginations copy. By the imagination, we place ourselves in his situation.’

And it seems that his concept of the ‘invisible hand’ also involves distributive justice:

‘... In spite of their natural selfishness and rapacity, though they mean only their own conveniency, though the sole end which they propose ... be the gratification of their own vain and insatiable desires, they divide with the poor the produce of all their improvements. They are led by an invisible hand to make nearly the same distribution of the necessaries of life, which would have been made, had the earth been divided into equal portions among all its inhabitants , and thus without intending it, without knowing it, advance the interest of the society.’

Overall, it seems that Adam Smith was far from being merely a self-seeking emotionless bastard. His ‘economics’ consists not only of the exchange of material goods but also favors, sympathy, and emotions that are fundamental to human nature. To be honest, human beings are ALL self-interested animals. But because one’s recipe for happiness lies not in the realm of material wealth alone, his self-interest is not truly served until he takes other people’s needs, be it emotional or material into consideration.

Like it or not, human beings need others to live a meaningful existence. Such is an eternal truth of life that puny beings like us could do nothing about. This, I believe, was what AS really meant. There will probably be an increased understanding that capitalism, without humanity, ultimately serves no ends, and I hope by then, the founding father of My University Course could truly rest in peace, be it in heaven or in hell.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Too good to be true? lol

The past few days were pretty interesting: A simple desire to assist a friend in need opened the doors for me to experience something totally different. I have met and talked with a class of very impressive people i have never interacted with in a life's time; and in the process i played a significant role in something extremely important.

I never expected to experience such things as a 1st yr student. I guess the so-called london advantage isnt just a marketing buzz. In a city as international as here, one seriously gets the opportunity to participate in something totally different.

And fate often caughts one off-guarded. In a time as bad as now, we all understand how it is virtually impossible to get a internship in investment banking. But i, someone who hardly made any serious applications, got a free summer intern (yea, its front office)out of nowhere. Yes, its not a bulge bracket bank. But at least it has a strong international presence and specialisation in the energy industry.
I currently juggling a number of equally attractive ways to spend my coming summer holiday and therefore i am not sure whether i will take up this offer. But im still pretty amazed by my fortune. All these seems too good to be true.

Oh yea, and my team is acing the Europe Merrill lynch Trading challenge. Shorting Oil Futures and Major INvestment banks' shares against the backdrop of a gloomy market were key to acheiving this position out of 233 teams:

Rank Team % Return Portfolio Value(Pounds)
1.C85624 Sukriti Roya Naresh Marek 206.57 30,656,600.66
2.C85678 David Joshua Yee Jie Bessie56.55 15,654,952.65
3.C85653 Daming Zheng Zui Xiaomei 31.20 13,119,632.87
4.C85788 Mariusz Anna Ewelina Rados 22.79 12,279,134.47
5.C85771 Andreas Martin Alexander Lisa 22.10 12,210,201.51

Wednesday, December 31, 2008

A Discourse Between Me and a Fellow Chinese in 校内网

Its an attempt of mine to write something in chinese after an extremely long hiatus....

致易同学的回复:

看了你的答复,我想说,厉害,不愧是搞辩论的。中国零八年是发生了不少事儿,也受了不少苦,但我觉得这一切以一个民族团结,凝聚力上升而结尾,所以我对未来还是抱乐观态度的。就象我上例所说的,我不认为我们是个冷酷无情的民族,写这篇日志也就是发出一些失望的慨叹吧。

关于上海的诸多传闻,相信大家都听过,我也不必多提。我上篇日志难免有些批评的语气。其实不然(我也没什么资格批评)。我刚写完我那复旦的新加坡朋友的博客的读后感时最想听到的不是赞同或反驳的声音,而是希望一位上海同胞亲口告诉我:‘不,我们绝不是这样的人’。当然,希望与现实之间的反差是永远存在的。担人却不能没有希望,因为今天的意义往往建立在对明天的展望中。

劣根性:
鲁迅当然难免被日本人影响。坦白说,我并不喜欢他书中的核心思想。记得以前我看了金庸十遍也不想再碰什么狂人日记,药啊,汤啊,什么的第二遍。但我却不能不承认它残酷的真实性。当达致腐败巅峰的君主制在外国列强面前屡战屡败,屡败屡辱的情况下,鲁迅的文字,我认为,精确地勾画出人性中最悲哀的一种心境:绝望。

我没什么文学根底,也没受过正式的国史教育,自然也没什么资格评价劣根性这一话题。但从我有限的知识中,我认为鲁迅所说的和中国人真正致命的‘劣根性’有两点;而这两点在千年来牵制中国发展起了关键性的作用。简单的来说,就是:

第一,窝里斗

这个相信大家都已经听得烂了,宋朝狗官的不用说了,明朝的冲关一怒为红颜也不用提了,就连抗日老蒋也得等被绑了才决定暂时’中国人不打中国人’。纵观历史,中国被外国人占便宜的时候没有一次不是因为那‘一盘散沙’的态度。官场上也是,如果一个国家的领导层把所有的精力都用在篡权,那我想他们就算没被干掉,也没什么余力去思考如何使国家进不了。

第二,讲话拐弯抹角,不直接也不干脆
乍看下,这点似乎跟主题没什么关系。实则非也,Eric Beinhocker 在 The Orgin of Wealth (2006)里面总结了对诸多经济体的调查研究。而其中一大发现就是那些信任度,沟通顺畅,与积极合作的国家在整体上经济比缺乏这几点的发达甚多。他也引用滨州大学的一个(忘了是谁)教授的一个regression analysis 直接发现了postive correlation between the former and the latter,hence establishing their statistical significance。数据中显示合作意识弱,信任度低(当然也是用民调查的)的一些南美,非洲国家,经济极度落后,而合作意识强,信任度高的一些欧洲国家经济极度发达。

这又跟讲话拐弯抹角,不干脆,不直接,有什么关系?我想引用一篇易欣同学日志里说明这点:

“。。。很多外国朋友对我说:「和中国人交往很难,说了半天不晓得他心里什么想法。」我说:「这有什么稀奇,不要说你们洋人,就中国人和中国人来往,都不知道对方心里想的什么。」要察言观色,转弯抹角,问他说:「吃过饭没有?」他说:「吃了!」其实没有吃,肚子还在叫。譬如说选举,洋人的作风是:「我觉得我合适,请大家选我。」中国人却是诸葛亮式的:即令有人请他,他也一再推辞:「唉!我不行啊!我哪里够资格?」其实你不请他的话,他恨你一辈子。。。”

对,三国里群雄钩心斗角,话里藏话所展出那无比的智力旁人看了是在是酷到极点。但这种优话不直说,有屁不直放的文化的一大弊端就是大幅度减少沟通的效果与效率。如果我不知道你在说什么,你是有善意,还是敌意,那我跟本就不可能跟你有效地合作。上列的调查也显示,美国人基本上也不相信彼此,但这却被 a respect for the rule of law and a comprehensive set of social technologies in the form of contract, competition and business laws 给抵消了。如果你知道有法律保护你的利益,那就算你不相信别人,也至少敢跟他们合作。当然,英语的简单,易懂,不含太多多音多意词的本质也促进了沟通。

其实,上述这些根本就不算劣根性,而是社会条件所培养的民族性质。而我也不太相信民族劣根性这个概念,人是一直在变的,没有一个民族的核心思想是注定得跟着一个模式走的。

你说满目疮痍的20世纪挫伤了我们的民族自豪感。我同意。

但我们不用继续这样下去

只要我们少把自己的智慧用在对付自己人身上,那我对祖国的未来是抱有极大的憧憬的。

易欣:

罗兰说,你的英文很好,但是你的中文不太好,所以人看上去不太爱说话,可是我看你的中文比我们身边很多在中国接受过正统教育的人都要好,呵呵。 看了你日志的第一段的时候是在有点感动,因为这个快餐文化时代愿意捧着书读金庸的人已经不多了,有机会实在是要好好探讨一下。

虽然你说自己不喜欢读鲁迅,但是事实上,你对鲁迅的思考真的是相当到位的,比较值得赞赏的是独立的思考,也许也正是因为你没有在大陆接受教育的原因吧。鲁迅已经被捧得太高了,他作为民族脊梁的存在已经远远掩盖了一个真实的鲁迅。我觉得,“绝望”这个词很多时候真的是很好的诠释了鲁迅人生中时常显现的狭隘与偏激。当然这么说是有点儿对大师的不敬啦,毕竟鲁迅在文学上的成就还是毋庸置疑的。

至于你提到的中国人的两个缺点,我觉得当然是在理的,你引用的我日志里柏杨老先生的话也确实说出了中国人的一种处世哲学,the origin of wealth这本书貌似很有趣,看过一些对它的评论,好像捧得非常高,有机会我也想读读,因为我实在是很想知道他研究人与人之间信任与沟通程度的方法。其实我的看法是,信任和沟通,除了会受民族文化和性格的影响,也很大程度上受到物质和社会发展程度的影响,就好像,两个人中间放了一个面包,要是在我们现在的伦敦,如果我想吃这个面包,我只要跟你说一声,之后我可以大胆的走开不用担心你会偷吃面包,可是,如果场景变成飞机失事后的孤岛呢?那恐怕我们谁都难以信任谁,都认为对方会为了生存而偷吃面包。当然这个例子有点极端,但是事实是,如果物质财富不能达到一定程度,人跟人之间的信任也就不会那么强,一旦每个人都打着自己的小算盘,那沟通自然也会受到影响。当然这只是我个人的一种看法,大众科学的好处就是可以每个人都把自己当科学家的猜想一番,呵呵。

看到你在说鲁迅的时候,引用了我日志里柏杨的话,感觉还是很有趣的,因为,柏杨有时候真的给人后鲁迅的感觉,不过他跟鲁迅的不同是,他不怕坐牢,不怕名声不好,不受学而优则仕思想的拖累,所以说他比鲁迅更洒脱,也没有那种自己把自己逼到角落里的绝望,而他们之间最大的不同,也正是我最不能赞赏鲁迅的一点,柏杨虽然偏激但是他说出中国人的缺点的时候带着的是对民族未来无限的希望,我曾经在大概初中的时候无意间买回了他编辑整理的《中国人史纲》,后来读的时候才知道这是他在台湾监狱里经历了许多波折编辑出来的,从这一点也足以看出他对民族的深厚感情,还有就是他“丑陋的中国人”中的这一段“五、六岁的时候,大人就对我说:「中国的前途就看你们这一代了!」我想我的责任太大,负担不起。后来我告诉我的儿子:「中国的前途就看你们这一代了!」现在,儿子又告诉孙子:「中国的前途就看你们这一代了!」一代复一代,一代何其多?到哪一代才能够好起来?”读起来真是令人不胜唏嘘。

但是反观鲁迅,就好像,一个生了病的病人,医生找出病人病因并告诉病人,应该是为了治疗和预防,而不是为了责备病人,这正是鲁迅与柏杨的不同,柏杨看着那个年代里病入膏肓的中国,仍然满怀希望做自己能做的事,而鲁迅就恨不得在病人病死前先把病人骂死,而更有趣的是如此激进的鲁迅却又在《药》里面貌似不赞成激进的救国,呵呵,可能在他看来骂死病人无作为的医生大概才算好医生。哎呀,不好意思说远了。 再说你提到的三国演义一体现出的中国人勾心斗角的哲学,我觉得,不一定就是不好的,可能因为这种处世哲学和在我们这个时代里更为成功的西方文化不同,所以很容易被反思,这倒某种程度上像是中国人不自信的一种表现。这就好像,四川人喜欢吃辣,吃辣太多对身体肯定是不好的,但是这绝对不影响四川人的寿命低于全国平均水平的,同时吃辣带来的乐趣就更是外人难以揣测的啦。呵呵,这么说可能有点跑题,我的意思就是,勾心斗角固然不好,但是只要不过度,懂得内外有别和同胞之谊,说不定这样的哲学也能发掘出更多个人竞争力呀。

那个“少把智慧用在对付自己人身上”确确实实是今天中国人该反思的,因为看看历史我们知道抗日战争虽然我们付出了惨重的代价,但是那时候大家都在打仗,1945年大家都是一样的起点,而真正导致我们落后的却是国共内战,极左的大跃进之后的3年灾害,和文化大革命。当然,这方面我们也是有提高的,我最明显的感觉就是每年回北京时候感受到的不同,以前公共汽车上让座的人是话说真的是不多的,而且人和人之间也很冷漠,买东西更有人不排队等等,但是这一次夏天在北京,一次我坐公车的时候一对老夫妇上来,由于是那种老式的座位很少的车,竟然半截车箱的人都站起来了,作为一个北京长大的人对于这种场面确实还是有些震惊的。我相信,随着国家发展,只要大家更加富起来,能接受良好教育的人也越来越多,社会风气也会越来越人性化。 我始终相信这样一个理论,美国是靠美元把人与人连在了一起,

而中国则是血浓于水的同胞之谊。 在我们不断地把自己的文化和主导了世界历史200年的西方文化进行对比,并且自我检讨的时候,其实更该记住,正式这个被我们和我们前辈文人在54 运动和文革中早已批得体无完肤的文化,造就了这世界上延续最久的4000年文明。这么说可能让人觉得自大,但是从甲午战争后一直难以找到足够民族自信的我们,也许也是时候该稍微膨胀以下了,毕竟,西方真的没我们想象的那么好,呵呵。

李达明:
感谢ucl 优秀四辩易同学给了我这么一个‘日志式’的回答!实在是让中文不怎么好的学弟哥哥脸上贴金,也让我学了不少东西,就像我跟容融所说的,我真得好好跟你们学习交流。

靠,罗兰也说我中文不好啊,可她跟我说不错啊。算了,习惯了,她又不是第一个,而是第五个了!现在听了不觉得那么郁闷了!我在新加坡是老笑那些英式教育的人不会母语,现在报应来了!

呵呵 The Origin of Wealth 我觉得是我这几年看过最经典的书了,它吧近代经济发展史做了个很全面的总结,但做出了更令人叹为观止的批判。最经典的一点就是他应用人类学,物理,社会学,cognitive science (中文不知道是啥),数学,进化学,给了经济一门崭新的面目,实在是让人看了赞叹不已!而这些研究都是从美国那几间听得烂了的名校来的,作者本人也属于 MIT 和 Mckinsey,看来这些地方也不算浪得虚名。我前几天吧这书看完啦,你要借的话,就跟我说:)

你说中国则是血浓于水的同胞之宜,这点我同意。我们这一民族有时是有点矛盾的。一方面我们爱窝里斗,另一方面我们又特别重感情。我们有多少文学作品是以兄弟情作主题的?太多太多了。在新加坡,一个中西交合的社会,我明显看到了这点。接受英文教育的假洋鬼子们比较冷漠,很明显不如那些倾向与中文教育的人重感情。记得我高中时一群朋友整日都是把 ‘brotherhood’一字挂在嘴边的,呵呵。

我绝对相信西方没我们想象的那么好, the grass on the otherside is ALWAYS greener. 我接受了类似西方式的教育,也看了不少西方的书,也读了一年英国的common law,我觉的西方绝对有值得学习的地方。但盲目跟随于无控制的开放绝对是致命的,只要看看 The Confessions of an Economic Hitman 或货币战争大概就有点概念了。后者写得有点过于阴谋论,但毕竟有不少历史根据。 我也绝不是盲目崇洋媚外的人,我生平最讨厌这种人。比如说,我每次看到某些女同胞跟老掉牙的老外走在一起的时候,心底就莫名的梦生出一种鄙视,呵呵。我知道这样挺不好的,但那是自然反应。

鲁迅确实是一代宗师,但他的核心思想毕竟围绕着绝望。 我本人不相信绝望,因为我亲身体验过那种极端的心态对一个人有着多么大的摧毁性。死并不可怕,那只是一种让你失去知觉的东西。真正可怕的是或在没有希望与尊严的黑暗里。西方有一套叫universal human rights的东西,说每个人生来就有一些不可剥夺的权利。我希望在里面多加一条,就是,‘每个人都权利为自己的民族感到自豪,无论它现在面临着如何的胜利或灾难’。我们无权选择生为黑人或百人,但无论老天让我们做什么人,我们都有自尊的权利。这是人和科技,暴力,财富,以及任何外在的力量都颠覆不了的。 我想随着时代的改变,我们也应该改变我们崇拜的轴心。

每个文明都有起有落。近代史是欧洲人摆脱了黑暗时代的宗教腐败束缚之后征服世界的时代。有许民族在这个过程中背毁灭或完全遭文化侵略。 在近代史,中国虽然败了,但我们还存在着,而且影响力与日俱增。大难不死,必有后福,我生平最大的梦想就是能活到国人强大,回复自豪感的一天。(别笑我,我是认真地,呵呵)

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Its pretty interesting how i always attract gals who are senior in academic progression(and not necessarily age) rather than contemporaries or juniors.

My ex-ex was j2 when i was j1
MY ex was a LLM student
and this one....is a yr 3 student(the final yr student in the uk system)

I wont be as thicked skinned as to think that this current one is definitely interested in me. But if she added me on xiaonei (chinese facebook) and actively talks to me on msn and on phone and invited me to her bdae party when i have barely known her for less than a week, there are good reasons to be suspicious.

I know for a number of reasons, im alot older than my peers in the same academic year, immigration lar, national service lar, law school transfer lar..etc and therefore these 'senior' gals are not necessarily older than me in terms of age. But seriously, i wouldnt mind if i could have more chances with gals whu are going to gradaute the same time as me. It would make maintaining r/s much easier, seriously

Friday, November 21, 2008

Life Thus far

Time flies and my first term is almost over..

After suffering for 15 yrs under the agonizing equitorial heat, London's weather surely feels like heaven. The past 3 months were dominated by a huge sentiment of relief; and i swear the feeling is almost comparable to that experienced by a slave who, after a sustained period of struggle, has finally attained liberation from his malicious tyrant. Finally, i could live like a normal human being. Finally, i could restore some vigor to my social life, which, due to my reluctance to step out of my little air-conditioned haven, has more or less remained in a wretched state of stagnation for the past one year.

英镑现在真是便宜到抽筋。All thanks to the great, and benevolent Mervyn King, whose simple one liner in the financial times have saved we poor, exploited, overcharged, price-discriminated international students a 3rd of our exorbitant educational expenditure in the UK. Pound was worth 2.72 Sing Dollars before i came. Now its 2.22. Oh Gosh, did i just save 50000SGD out of no where? Oh, and for my comrades who changed everythnig at 2.9, you have my condolensces.....

My academic progress thus far is pretty acceptable. I am not exactly studying as hard as i have wished to (I have been attending social events, birthdays, gyming, overnight bridge/card/talk kock sessions and skipping useless lectures like nobody's business.) But following all the homeworks and having an aptitude for numerical analysis coupled with a passion for economics did aid me in getting a few 90 pluses and A+s for a few tests. The extremely abstract and bewildering and confusing course in mathematical analysis has also seemed to become easier of late. I guess i have simply gotten used to its ridiculous bullshitings (For example proving why Log base E is an irrational number or why 1+1=2). But having said that, what i have done isnt enough, i guess, for a PHD wannabe like me.

The social life here is great. I am fortunate enough to have met a good bunch of chinese and Singaporean buddies here(and some british borns). I appreciate the good times spent chatting, laughing, eating, and overnight bridging together. But Year 2 is gona be hard. I suspect its not going to be a walk in the park like what im experiencing now in year 1. 李政其实澎湃的说他要奋斗。。。我看我也不能在萎靡下去了。。

Thursday, September 25, 2008

My modules

Economics 1001
Introduction Statistics
Applied Economics
Maths for Econs 1
Maths for Econs 2
Mathematical Analysis 1
Mathematical Analysis 2

Machiam taking a maths degree...